Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
82 0x82aa…b973 sports 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$80 (+2%) realized −$33 · open +$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$668
14 days+$680
30 days+$680
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$881
other 36% +$10
world 2% −$89
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -1.7% -11.0% 53% 53% +12.0%
≤30d 33 +5.6% -4.5% 55% 55% +12.4%
≤90d 33 +5.6% -4.5% 55% 55% +12.4%
all 33 +5.6% -4.5% 55% 55% +12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 55% +12.4%
10% -13.6% 55% +1.6%
15% -22.0% 55% -8.2%
20% -29.6% 52% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +56% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$64 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$113
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 47
History coverage8d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 0¢ 50¢ $0 $97 +$97 (+0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 81¢ $77 $92 +$15 (+20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 +$65 +65%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$49 -95%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$178 -88%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $101 −$86 -85%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 −$78 -77%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 −$89 -87%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $453 +$661 +146%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 +$55 +55%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$96 +96%
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 20 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $150 +$139 +92%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 Jun 19 $51 +$42 +82%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$56 +109%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$44 +87%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$33 +64%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$33 +65%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$148 +73%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$33 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $61 +$32 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$40 -79%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -82%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 +$33 +109%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$12 +237%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 58¢ $202 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will A BUY 53¢ $89 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $78 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY 28¢ $199 17h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 17h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 57¢ $101 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL 8¢ $25 21h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND SELL 8¢ $15 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL 12¢ $24 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL 6¢ $13 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 48¢ $102 26h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 47¢ $102 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 52¢ $101 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 64¢ $101 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 29¢ $31 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 64¢ $101 27h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 41¢ $249 38h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $101 41h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 55¢ $101 41h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 41¢ $61 41h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 50¢ $100 2d
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 23¢ $51 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 39¢ $204 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to BUY 65¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.01 · official $487.72 · 82 history records