Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:23:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82aa…fe2f sports 799 markets active 6h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (249 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,352 (-7%) realized −$2,352 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%307W / 655L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day248.7pace
Fees−$458est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$1,296
other 3% +$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (249 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 693 -27.2% -34.1% 30% 25% -44.6%
≤30d 962 -17.2% -25.1% 32% 27% -35.3%
≤90d 962 -17.2% -25.1% 32% 27% -35.3%
all 962 -17.2% -25.1% 32% 27% -35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover248.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 27% -35.3%
10% ← realistic here -32.3% 21% -41.5%
15% -38.8% 17% -47.2%
20% -44.8% 12% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$30 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2,352
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses307 / 655
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$458
Open positions0
Markets (closed)962 / 799
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day248.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 962 Trades
no open positions (292 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 29 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 29 $136 −$136 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 12.5 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Mohammedia: Polina Kuharenko vs Vaidehi Chaudhari Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 Jun 29 $34 −$34 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $118 −$118 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Jun 29 $120 −$120 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification (Doubles): Frantzen/Haase vs Jones/P Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 Jun 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Jun 29 $189 −$189 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 29 $36 −$36 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 29 $130 −$130 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 29 $92 −$92 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5) Jun 29 $48 −$48 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 29 $101 −$101 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $134 −$134 -100%
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Gille/Verbeek vs Gill/Harris Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Jun 29 $230 −$230 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 29 $287 −$287 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 29 $998 −$998 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5 Jun 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 29 $74 −$74 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 29 $122 −$122 -100%
Is Luigi Mangione YouTube channel real? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $49 −$49 -100%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Ryo Tabata Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 5h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 32¢ $24 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 89¢ $25 21h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 16¢ $25 21h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 15¢ $3 21h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 15¢ $4 21h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 15¢ $19 21h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 15¢ $21 21h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $14 21h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 80¢ $25 21h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 21h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $0 21h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Jordan 66¢ $24 21h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $13 21h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $11 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 74¢ $10 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 74¢ $4 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 74¢ $10 22h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $25 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 31¢ $25 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 63¢ $24 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 22h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $25 22h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $24 22h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $24 22h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $25 22h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 68¢ $24 22h
ITF Sapporo: Miho Kuramochi vs Ayumi Miyamoto BUY Ayumi Miyamoto 15¢ $25 22h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Jordan 6¢ $24 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.95 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records