Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:58:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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82 0x82aa…eeb9 crypto 201 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$109 (-1%) realized −$97 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%87W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$945now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$254
7 days+$252
14 days+$178
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$109
sports 35% −$525
other 16% +$494
world 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 +3.5% -6.4% 49% 48% -5.7%
≤30d 194 -0.2% -9.7% 45% 44% -11.2%
≤90d 194 -0.2% -9.7% 45% 44% -11.2%
all 194 -0.2% -9.7% 45% 44% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 44% -11.2%
10% -18.3% 43% -19.7%
15% -26.2% 41% -27.4%
20% -33.5% 36% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$28 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$945
Realized−$97
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses87 / 107
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions7
Markets (closed)194 / 201
History coverage17d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $807 $801 −$6 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Over 83¢ 82¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Over 80¢ 80¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 25¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$34 +111%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$12 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$18 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$18 +173%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $60 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$19 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $67 +$24 +36%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $78 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $98 −$97 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $122 −$30 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$35 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$20 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$70 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$26 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $30 3m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $30 3m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $30 3m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $30 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 21m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $783 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 59m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $5 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 4h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $30 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $944.64 · official $944.68 (match) · 393 history records