Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82a9…2e61 crypto 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$247 (-9%) realized −$247 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day50.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$387
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -10.2% -18.7% 43% 14% -22.0%
≤30d 35 -10.2% -18.7% 43% 14% -22.0%
≤90d 35 -10.2% -18.7% 43% 14% -22.0%
all 35 -10.2% -18.7% 43% 14% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 14% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 6% -29.4%
15% -33.6% 6% -36.2%
20% -40.1% 3% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$26 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$247
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage3d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day50.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $39 −$17 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $132 −$115 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $240 −$111 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $154 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $235 +$39 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $36 −$8 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $44 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $87 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $136 −$10 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $108 −$79 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $169 −$9 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $128 +$16 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $27 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $27 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$11 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $174 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $115 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $138 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $207 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$21 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$27 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$11 +255%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$8 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $112 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $114 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $128 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $121 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 175 history records