Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:06:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x82a7…fb74
politics · 211 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$74 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$85 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$44
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses52 / 154
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)206 / 211
History coverage97d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 5 History 206 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$7
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Jun 13 $27 −$1 -3%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 11 $16 −$1 -5%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $22 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12PM ET Jun 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $57 $0 -0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 05 $51 $0 -1%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $19 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $35 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $81 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 02 $47 −$1 -3%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $44 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $66 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $32 $0 -0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 30 $8 $0 -1%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 43% −$6
other 37% −$76
crypto 8% −$3
sports 7% +$1
world 4% −$2
economics 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $10 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $7 2h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $3 2h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $10 5h
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $7 7h
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $7 30h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 32h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 33h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 33h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 33h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $6 36h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 36h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $6 39h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 40h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $5 44h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 44h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $5 45h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 46h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $5 46h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 47h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $6 2d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $6 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $7 2d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $7 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $6 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 85 -0.9% -10.3% 6% 0% -12.6%
≤90d 175 -0.4% -9.9% 19% 0% -11.7%
all 206 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -11.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -20.1%
15% -26.4% 0% -27.8%
20% -33.6% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.93 · official $43.93 (match) · 1130 history records