Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:54:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x82a5…8f69
other · 282 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$484 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$680 · open −$208
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$872
Realized+$680
Unrealized−$208
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses78 / 184
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions20
Markets (closed)262 / 282
History coverage148d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 20 History 262 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$190
30 days−$304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 82¢ $150 $178 +$28 (+19%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 72¢ 50¢ $240 $166 −$74 (-31%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 34¢ $220 $142 −$78 (-36%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 50¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+29%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 60¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+17%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $70 $30 −$40 (-57%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026? Yes 65¢ 30¢ $50 $24 −$26 (-53%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-27%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Yes 28¢ 27¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-77%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 12¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-68%)
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 2? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Will Leeds United FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 01 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $11 −$10 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 01 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 01 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 +$19 +38%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $41 +$97 +238%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 14 $155 −$150 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 14 $127 −$120 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? May 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 20? May 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 20? May 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 17? May 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 16? May 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? May 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22? May 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 12 $20 +$60 +291%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? May 11 $20 +$46 +226%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? May 11 $20 +$54 +262%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 10 $41 +$113 +276%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 07 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-09? May 07 $41 −$40 -98%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 07 $31 +$76 +250%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 06 $41 −$40 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5? May 06 $32 +$105 +330%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 06 $41 +$29 +70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $51 +$24 +48%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 05 $10 +$40 +388%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $31 +$38 +124%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? May 05 $21 +$112 +530%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $31 +$119 +388%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 43% +$1,021
crypto 36% −$757
sports 14% +$341
world 6% −$33
finance 1% −$35
politics 0% −$35
weather 0% −$10
economics 0% −$10
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 65¢ $31 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 71¢ $102 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 66¢ $31 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 12d
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 27d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 27d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $70 27d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 28d
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 28d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 28d
Will Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 28d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 28d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 28d
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 28d
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 28d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 28d
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 28d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 28d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY No 69¢ $51 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 18 -73.6% -76.1% 11% 11% -63.2%
≤90d 162 -22.0% -29.4% 28% 27% -18.2%
all 262 +3.1% -6.7% 30% 29% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 29% -2.6%
10% -15.7% 28% -11.9%
15% -23.8% 28% -20.4%
20% -31.3% 26% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $871.82 · official $871.83 (match) · 451 history records