Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:10:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
82 0x82a3…c11a other 143 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$497 (+41%) realized +$476 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%48W / 90L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$45
14 days+$473
30 days+$447
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$570
finance 14% −$44
crypto 12% −$39
weather 4% +$7
world 3% −$7
sports 3% −$26
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -34.4% -40.7% 17% 17% -43.0%
≤30d 47 +83.0% +65.6% 40% 36% +67.0%
≤90d 109 +35.5% +22.6% 33% 30% +37.7%
all 138 +28.8% +16.5% 35% 33% +34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.5% 33% +34.7%
10% +5.4% 29% +21.8%
15% -4.8% 28% +10.0%
20% -14.2% 26% -0.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$3 · ×4.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized+$476
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses48 / 90
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)138 / 143
History coverage120d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) No 45¢ 62¢ $50 $69 +$19 (+38%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Yes 32¢ 47¢ $40 $59 +$19 (+47%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $60 $58 −$1 (-2%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 15 2026? No 24¢ 98¢ $10 $41 +$31 (+309%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 43¢ 2¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $49 −$11 -23%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $21 −$9 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -45%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? Jun 11 $21 +$14 +66%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 11 $23 +$182 +790%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 10 $21 −$6 -26%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $41 +$7 +16%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $62 −$36 -58%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $16 +$4 +25%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $15 +$285 +1900%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $15 −$3 -18%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$22 +435%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$24 +462%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $5 +$35 +725%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,350 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$3 -58%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 02 $5 −$1 -20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 02 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,550 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 02 $7 +$5 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 02 $7 $0 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? May 29 $2 −$2 -80%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May? May 28 $32 +$2 +6%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 27 $6 $0 -3%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 Week of May 25 2026? May 26 $22 −$18 -85%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June? May 26 $16 −$16 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 24 $5 +$3 +66%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026? May 24 $1 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in May 2026? May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $1 +$1 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $3 +$12 +432%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $3 +$6 +185%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 Week of May 18 2026? May 21 $6 −$4 -61%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 21 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 Week of May 18 2026? May 20 $9 +$13 +146%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 Week of May 18 2026? May 20 $6 +$3 +56%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 20? May 20 $2 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? May 18 $6 +$26 +425%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 11 2026? May 14 $7 −$4 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 19m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 25m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $17 33m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 3h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 30¢ $21 11h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) BUY No 45¢ $50 18h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 18? SELL No 25¢ $12 19h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 18? BUY No 20¢ $10 21h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 18? SELL No 9¢ $9 21h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 18? BUY No 10¢ $10 23h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $12 26h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 24¢ $10 37h
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? BUY Yes 32¢ $41 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? SELL No 0¢ $1 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 39¢ $28 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY No 13¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 16¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 30¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY No 9¢ $10 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 7d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 20¢ $34 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.56 · official $273.56 (match) · 320 history records