Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
82 0x82a1…569c crypto 270 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$632 (+2%) realized +$637 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%113W / 155L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$259est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,122
7 days+$2,139
14 days+$2,139
30 days+$2,139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$2,535
crypto 40% −$1,676
other 9% −$388
world 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -9.2% -17.8% 54% 54% -0.4%
≤30d 28 -9.2% -17.8% 54% 54% -0.4%
≤90d 268 -8.2% -17.0% 42% 39% -7.9%
all 268 -8.2% -17.0% 42% 39% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 39% -7.9%
10% -24.9% 36% -16.7%
15% -32.2% 32% -24.8%
20% -38.8% 29% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$76 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$526
Realized+$637
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses113 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$259
Open positions2
Markets (closed)268 / 270
History coverage77d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 268 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 52¢ $530 $525 −$5 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 53¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $795 +$204 +26%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,519 +$908 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $469 +$267 +57%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $154 −$150 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $828 −$484 -58%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,362 −$850 -62%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $289 +$63 +22%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,035 +$963 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $3,062 +$934 +30%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $3,975 +$1,020 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,149 −$1,133 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,085 −$1,069 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $845 +$151 +18%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $266 −$260 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $471 −$164 -35%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $153 −$10 -6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,134 +$356 +31%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $507 +$376 +74%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $810 +$522 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$96 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $304 −$236 -78%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $153 −$69 -45%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $449 +$215 +48%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $49 −$12 -25%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $318 +$227 +71%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $547 +$473 +86%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 14 $60 −$58 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 14 $104 −$43 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 14 $80 +$44 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 14 $42 +$19 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 14 $36 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 14 $132 −$62 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 14 $100 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 14 $62 +$37 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 14 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 12 $234 −$226 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 10 $200 −$197 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 10 $37 −$11 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 10 $249 −$146 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 10 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 10 $150 +$136 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 10 $290 −$280 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 10 $59 −$56 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 10 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 10 $200 +$195 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 10 $217 +$198 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 10 $102 +$89 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 10 $106 −$104 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 99¢ $2,969 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 94¢ $2,427 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $795 2h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $567 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1,519 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $736 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $344 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $469 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $828 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 17¢ $56 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 71¢ $352 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $289 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $806 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 47¢ $474 10h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $1,055 10h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $537 11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $500 11h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,998 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1,035 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $102 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,477 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $487 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $332 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $139 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $487 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $487 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $487 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $525.99 · official $525.00 (match) · 1090 history records