Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:43:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x829f…ccfd
sports · 1348 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,720 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,720 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$2,720
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses738 / 604
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1342 / 1348
History coverage206d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 6 History 1342 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$53
14 days−$69
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Morocco 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Haiti 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$34 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $24 −$18 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +18%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $56 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 06 $8 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +76%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 +$17 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 03 $9 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 31 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 30 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 21? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 21? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $107 +$53 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 27 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 27 $9 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 26 $45 +$6 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 45% −$1,498
sports 41% −$745
other 7% −$444
tech 3% −$28
economics 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2 7m
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 62¢ $1 11m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 12m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 12m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $1 17m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $7 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 57m
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $15 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $65 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $31 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $15 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 35h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 6¢ $1 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 13¢ $6 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 39¢ $10 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $3 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -28.5% -35.3% 50% 44% -28.3%
≤30d 84 -27.6% -34.5% 42% 38% -21.0%
≤90d 422 -30.7% -37.3% 42% 34% -17.8%
all 1342 -3.0% -12.3% 55% 50% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 50% -14.3%
10% -20.7% 43% -22.5%
15% -28.3% 37% -30.0%
20% -35.3% 32% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.93 · official $6.93 (match) · 3500 history records