Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:38:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
82 0x829e…10c1 crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (183 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$65 (+4%) realized +$61 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate73%36W / 13L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day183.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$129
weather 3% +$4
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (183 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +7.3% -2.9% 73% 49% -1.3%
≤30d 49 +7.3% -2.9% 73% 49% -1.3%
≤90d 49 +7.3% -2.9% 73% 49% -1.3%
all 49 +7.3% -2.9% 73% 49% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover183.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.9% 49% -1.3%
10% ← realistic here -12.2% 39% -10.8%
15% -20.7% 20% -19.4%
20% -28.5% 8% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses36 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day183.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? No 68¢ 74¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Under 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$27 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $112 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $142 +$39 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$32 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $82 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $36 +$15 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$8 +81%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$4 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $36 +$15 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $33 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $56 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $105 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$7 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $181 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.68 · official $63.68 (match) · 206 history records