Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:47:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x829c…a9c5 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 379d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$2
other 27% $0
politics 11% $0
crypto 6% +$1
tech 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.0% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 16 -0.9% -10.3% 19% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 16 -0.9% -10.3% 19% 0% -9.9%
all 35 -0.3% -9.8% 34% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 6% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

379d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage379d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $28 −$1 -4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $58 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $28 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $28 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $29 −$1 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $26 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $28 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 +20%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will Wydad AC beat Manchester City? Jun 19 $21 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jun 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan? Jun 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 16 $13 $0 -3%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +82%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jun 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 08 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $30 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $30 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $28 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $28 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $30 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $27 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $28 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $31 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $31 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $31 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $31 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $28 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $28 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $26 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $27 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $19 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $21 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $6 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $28 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $6 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $22 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $29 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $30 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $11 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records