Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:12:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x829b…c7e5
crypto · 79 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$32 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$32 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$68
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses57 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)69 / 79
History coverage161d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 10 History 69 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Amazon have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 95¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-01-24? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 15? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 14? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 9? Apr 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 11? Apr 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on April 10? Apr 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 10? Apr 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 1? Apr 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 31? Apr 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 2? Apr 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 23? Mar 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 21? Mar 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 22? Mar 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on March 3? Mar 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 February 23-March 1? Mar 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on March 2? Mar 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on March 3? Mar 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Mar 13 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? Mar 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Mar 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? Mar 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 10 $10 $0 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 5? Feb 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on February 5 Feb 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Feb 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026? Feb 05 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 45% −$2
sports 23% +$3
crypto 16% $0
economics 11% −$1
other 3% −$21
tech 2% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 1h
Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 9d
Will Amazon have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 9d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY No 100¢ $12 9d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 9d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $12 9d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $13 16d
Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 16d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 16d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 30d
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $11 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $9 65d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14 66d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 66d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $12 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 31 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
all 69 -3.2% -12.4% 83% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 4% -10.0%
10% -20.8% 1% -18.6%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.91 · official $66.93 (match) · 179 history records