Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x829b…2cc8 other 229 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 217L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$312per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$16
14 days−$26
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$5
sports 26% −$28
politics 11% −$10
culture 5% −$8
economics 4% −$5
crypto 4% −$6
world 4% −$3
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 51 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 160 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 228 -0.0% -9.5% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×9.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)228 / 229
History coverage134d
Avg bet$312
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $465 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $252 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $730 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $548 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $963 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $539 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $674 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $697 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $217 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $99 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $964 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $310 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $662 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $405 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $224 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $498 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $203 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $546 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $330 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $314 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $568 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $343 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $661 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $143 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 02 $757 −$2 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $104 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $211 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1,278 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? May 29 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $205 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 26 $218 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 25 $869 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $1,884 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $94 3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $94 7h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $95 9h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $94 13h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $95 15h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $95 26h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $95 27h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $95 30h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $95 32h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $95 39h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $95 41h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $95 45h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $95 46h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $95 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $95 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $95 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $96 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $96 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $96 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $96 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $96 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $96 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $96 3d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $96 3d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $96 3d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $96 3d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $97 3d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $97 3d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $97 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.96 · official $54.96 (match) · 1284 history records