Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:39:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8297…d600 weather 194 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,852 (-7%) realized −$1,973 · open +$121
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate66%133W / 69L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days+$17
14 days−$454
30 days−$399
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$1,990
crypto 1% +$3
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -62.6% -66.1% 33% 11% -6.9%
≤30d 85 -16.6% -24.6% 65% 28% -10.2%
≤90d 158 -14.5% -22.7% 61% 34% -15.7%
all 202 -11.4% -19.8% 66% 30% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 30% -15.7%
10% -27.5% 17% -23.7%
15% -34.5% 10% -31.1%
20% -40.9% 7% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$83 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$365
Realized−$1,973
Unrealized+$121
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses133 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)202 / 194
History coverage242d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? Yes 26¢ 93¢ $46 $164 +$118 (+258%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 20? No 89¢ 100¢ $118 $132 +$15 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 21? No 87¢ 88¢ $63 $64 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? Yes 28¢ 6¢ $17 $4 −$13 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 30? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on May 30? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on May 26? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 26? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on May 30? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on May 28? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on May 30? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on May 26? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 30? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 30? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 26? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 26? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $34 +$11 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $189 +$14 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $85 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $162 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $59 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$61 +322%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $63 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $77 +$7 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 −$23 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 10 $237 +$13 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 08 $49 −$49 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $113 −$113 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $42 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $279 +$28 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $12 −$11 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $39 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $315 −$310 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $565 −$78 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $566 −$218 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $295 +$106 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $62 +$16 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $242 +$45 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $329 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $56 −$20 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $149 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $116 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $347 +$62 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $48 +$13 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $260 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 2? Jun 02 $233 +$30 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 2? Jun 02 $390 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $41 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $23 −$16 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $625 +$38 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 31m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 28¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 26¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 89¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 91¢ $39 25h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 74¢ $34 25h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 86¢ $47 26h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 88¢ $79 26h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $17 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $102 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $71 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $16 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $55 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 90¢ $22 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 92¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 91¢ $24 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 93¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $14 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $120 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $28 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $13 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $41 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $7 9d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 9d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 9d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 91¢ $77 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $364.73 · official $365.67 (match) · 1831 history records