Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:45:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x8295…f68b
sports · 331 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$396 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$548 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$136
Realized−$548
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses110 / 212
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions9
Markets (closed)322 / 331
History coverage67d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 9 History 322 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days+$59
14 days+$290
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 45¢ 52¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 64¢ 69¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 26¢ 34¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+29%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 44¢ 50¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+15%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $17 $13 −$4 (-22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Will Walmart acquire TikTok? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-90%)
Magic vs. Pistons Magic 23¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Dplus KIA 68¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Thunder Lakers 18¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 56¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 58¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Cavaliers 64¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Nuggets 53¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Cavaliers 37¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs Arizona Diamondbacks 14¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Timberwolves 23¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Weibo Gaming 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $11 −$3 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $71 −$1 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $44 +$6 +13%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Jun 12 $560 −$48 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $28 +$5 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $91 +$100 +109%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 06 $1 $0 -46%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 -2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 05 $6 −$3 -54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 05 $3 $0 -8%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $6 +$3 +55%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 05 $9 $0 -4%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $7 −$1 -13%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $115 +$191 +165%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $44 +$42 +96%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 −$6 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 30 $3 −$2 -47%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $44 +$4 +9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 29 $73 −$9 -12%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 28 $5 −$2 -43%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 25 $20 +$9 +44%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 24 $20 −$9 -44%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 24 $20 +$2 +10%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 23 $16 −$6 -38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $97 −$8 -8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 22 $10 −$5 -50%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $57 −$50 -88%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $6 −$3 -49%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 21 $7 −$1 -12%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 21 $8 −$2 -25%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 21 $8 −$4 -51%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 21 $21 −$11 -52%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $6 −$2 -30%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 20 $10 −$4 -42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 20 $9 −$1 -14%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $20 −$11 -55%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $6 −$3 -50%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $7 +$3 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $11 +$6 +52%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 18 $21 −$1 -5%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 18 $49 −$21 -43%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $57 +$81 +142%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $6 −$1 -19%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $6 +$4 +60%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 17 $23 +$5 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $8 +$1 +7%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner May 17 $6 −$4 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 33% −$331
world 27% −$63
other 25% +$28
culture 6% −$48
crypto 5% −$33
tech 2% −$50
politics 1% −$38
finance 1% −$18
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 20¢ $3 17m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 26¢ $14 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 25¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 23¢ $15 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $20 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 22¢ $14 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $20 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $6 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 36¢ $4 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $5 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $14 8h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $0 11h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 88¢ $11 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $0 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $6 26h
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? SELL No 48¢ $8 41h
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? SELL No 48¢ $9 41h
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? SELL No 48¢ $9 41h
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? SELL No 48¢ $9 41h
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $18 41h
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $18 44h
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 45h
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $9 45h
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? BUY Yes 52¢ $18 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +16.8% +5.7% 50% 50% -2.9%
≤30d 69 -9.3% -18.0% 33% 26% -8.1%
≤90d 322 -11.7% -20.1% 34% 28% -15.1%
all 322 -11.7% -20.1% 34% 28% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 28% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 21% -23.2%
15% -34.7% 17% -30.6%
20% -41.1% 14% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.02 · official $136.03 (match) · 2191 history records