Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:12:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
82 0x8295…eccb other 183 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$47 (+7%) realized +$58 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate45%44W / 54L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$51
14 days+$54
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$6
world 24% +$21
politics 16% +$5
tech 8% −$3
finance 4% +$5
sports 4% +$4
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +18.2% +6.9% 45% 34% +16.7%
≤30d 98 +1.5% -8.2% 45% 31% -1.2%
≤90d 98 +1.5% -8.2% 45% 31% -1.2%
all 98 +1.5% -8.2% 45% 31% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 31% -1.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 24% -10.6%
15% -25.0% 18% -19.3%
20% -32.4% 13% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses44 / 54
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions85
Markets (closed)98 / 183
History coverage18d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 85 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 75¢ 99¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+31%)
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No 60¢ 72¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+20%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 72¢ 82¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 60¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 71¢ 80¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Yes 37¢ 43¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 74¢ 74¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No 81¢ 81¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 65¢ 61¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 18¢ 21¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 48¢ 43¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 70¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+34%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? No 78¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 78¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? Yes 72¢ 73¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 50¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -77%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +91%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $4 +$21 +506%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $4 $0 -3%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $6 +$19 +309%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +45%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $20 +$19 +91%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? Jun 14 $0 $0 -10%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 14 $9 −$5 -56%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $6 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +35%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 +37%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$8 +334%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $6 +$3 +54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -28%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -58%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $1 $0 -20%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 12 $6 $0 -8%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? Jun 11 $5 $0 -9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 11 $7 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $1 $0 -38%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $9 $0 +5%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $6 +$4 +63%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $5 +$10 +222%
Will RISE launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $1 $0 -42%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $23 −$2 -7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $6 +$1 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $4 9m
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 15¢ $1 21m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $3 44m
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2 2h
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 66¢ $1 4h
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 5h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 21¢ $0 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $3 8h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $3 9h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 24¢ $1 10h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 10h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 28¢ $1 11h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 11h
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 13h
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 13h
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? BUY No 76¢ $4 14h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 18h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 9¢ $1 19h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 22h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 22h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 22h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 22h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.82 · official $224.70 (match) · 528 history records