Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:17:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8295…610c other 179 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,589 (-9%) realized −$1,586 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate35%61W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$162
7 days+$435
14 days+$450
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$555
politics 27% −$554
world 10% −$48
weather 8% −$115
sports 7% −$55
tech 4% −$71
finance 3% −$276
culture 1% −$75
crypto 1% −$16
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +42.4% +28.8% 70% 70% +25.8%
≤30d 29 -2.5% -11.8% 34% 24% -9.4%
≤90d 170 -18.5% -26.3% 33% 18% -19.0%
all 176 -17.1% -25.0% 35% 19% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 19% -19.0%
10% -32.1% 16% -26.7%
15% -38.7% 15% -33.8%
20% -44.7% 12% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$23 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized−$1,586
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses61 / 115
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)176 / 179
History coverage120d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $116 +$356 +307%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $195 −$81 -42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $183 +$15 +8%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $400B by December 31? Jun 03 $35 −$14 -41%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31? Jun 03 $118 −$16 -14%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by December 31? Jun 02 $58 −$37 -64%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $172.5B by June 30? May 28 $96 −$40 -42%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $35 +$3 +8%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31? May 22 $104 −$46 -44%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May? May 21 $191 −$24 -13%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May? May 21 $305 +$11 +4%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May? May 21 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Sw May 21 $11 $0 -3%
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? May 21 $27 −$2 -7%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $84 in May? May 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May? May 20 $439 −$154 -35%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $248 in May? May 20 $75 −$19 -26%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May? May 20 $243 −$26 -11%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May? May 20 $91 −$40 -44%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? May 20 $60 −$8 -13%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 19 $144 −$7 -5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May? May 18 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May? May 18 $285 −$34 -12%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $128 in May? May 18 $286 −$15 -5%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 in May? May 18 $379 −$27 -7%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? May 18 $266 +$1 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 in May? May 18 $215 −$9 -4%
Will NVIDIA Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 75% and 76%? May 18 $39 −$4 -10%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? May 18 $175 −$75 -43%
Labour leadership election scheduled by May 31? May 18 $26 −$7 -26%
Will Cherlynn Stevenson be the Democratic Nominee for KY-06? May 18 $14 +$1 +7%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 23m May 15 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15 May 15 $289 −$63 -22%
Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $16 −$3 -17%
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $67 −$10 -15%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $120 −$82 -68%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2 May 15 $358 +$2 +0%
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $344 −$105 -30%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $92 in May? May 14 $362 +$14 +4%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $86 −$18 -21%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $304 in May? May 14 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $106 −$18 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $169 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 28h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 40h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 40h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 95¢ $471 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 48¢ $23 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 20¢ $93 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $100 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 46¢ $114 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $195 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $198 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $183 14d
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $400B by December 31? SELL Yes $21 14d
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 14d
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $0 19d
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $2 19d
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $4 20d
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $0 20d
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $2 20d
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $10 20d
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $11 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.24 · official $247.24 (match) · 1929 history records