Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8293…aaee sports 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$261 (-5%) realized −$261 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%65W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days+$215
14 days+$136
30 days+$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$217
finance 7% −$79
other 2% +$75
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +24.8% +12.9% 80% 70% +19.8%
≤30d 19 +16.2% +5.1% 68% 63% +3.2%
≤90d 138 -10.4% -18.9% 47% 44% -13.2%
all 138 -10.4% -18.9% 47% 44% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 44% -13.2%
10% -26.7% 43% -21.5%
15% -33.7% 41% -29.1%
20% -40.2% 37% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$32 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$261
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses65 / 73
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions0
Markets (closed)138 / 138
History coverage76d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 138 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $137 +$19 +14%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $13 −$13 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $138 +$13 +9%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $83 +$56 +67%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $100 +$82 +82%
Avaí FC vs. Cuiabá EC: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $45 +$31 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $32 +$26 +79%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $21 +$12 +57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $90 −$89 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $9 +$10 +109%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $23 +$19 +81%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $33 +$40 +118%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $13 +$6 +48%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $54 +$12 +22%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -18%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $39 −$38 -98%
Gwangju FC vs. FC Seoul: O/U 1.5 May 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Gwangju FC vs. FC Seoul: O/U 2.5 May 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 May 11 $116 −$114 -99%
Randers FC vs. Odense BK: O/U 2.5 May 11 $78 +$58 +74%
New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 2.5 May 11 $53 +$37 +71%
Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5 May 10 $90 +$67 +75%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5 May 10 $48 +$43 +89%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5 May 10 $21 +$27 +128%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $125 −$104 -83%
Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to Score May 10 $50 −$25 -49%
RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5 May 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $68 −$67 -98%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 1.5 May 10 $36 −$36 -100%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 2.5 May 10 $7 −$7 -99%
Málaga CF vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 2.5 May 09 $53 +$46 +87%
Konyaspor vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 2.5 May 09 $69 +$47 +69%
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5 May 09 $52 +$67 +128%
O'Higgins FC vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5 May 07 $37 −$36 -98%
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 May 07 $99 +$79 +79%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 07 $93 −$85 -91%
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $50 +$63 +127%
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC: O/U 1.5 May 07 $57 −$56 -99%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 7? May 07 $220 −$45 -21%
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $64 −$64 -100%
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: Both Teams to Score May 07 $29 +$32 +109%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 06 $120 +$83 +69%
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 2.5 May 06 $100 +$86 +86%
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 2.5 May 06 $58 −$44 -76%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 06 $81 −$81 -100%
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 1.5 May 06 $30 +$31 +101%
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5 May 06 $101 +$80 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 64¢ $156 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $137 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $13 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 63¢ $141 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 63¢ $3 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 63¢ $5 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 63¢ $2 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $138 9h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $83 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 96¢ $182 33h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $100 34h
Avaí FC vs. Cuiabá EC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $0 35h
Avaí FC vs. Cuiabá EC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $26 35h
Avaí FC vs. Cuiabá EC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $18 35h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $45 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $32 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $21 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $42 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $26 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $22 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $19 8d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $42 8d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $9 8d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $23 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $73 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $33 8d
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $0 8d
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 412 history records