Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:05:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8291…622d crypto 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,803 (-27%) realized −$1,803 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate18%4W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day72.3pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$2,901
sports 44% −$237
other 5% −$325
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-69.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -66.2% -69.4% 18% 14% -56.2%
≤30d 22 -66.2% -69.4% 18% 14% -56.2%
≤90d 22 -66.2% -69.4% 18% 14% -56.2%
all 22 -66.2% -69.4% 18% 14% -56.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -69.4% 14% -56.2%
10% ← realistic here -72.4% 14% -60.4%
15% -75.0% 9% -64.2%
20% -77.5% 9% -67.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late -68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$230 vs −$243 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,803
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses4 / 18
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage3d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day72.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET Jun 22 $635 −$606 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $305 −$291 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $125 −$125 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $105 −$105 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $250 −$250 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $212 +$52 +24%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $600 +$750 +125%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $125 −$125 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $125 −$125 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $125 −$125 -100%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $325 −$325 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $90 −$90 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $106 −$106 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET Jun 22 $211 −$211 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $360 −$347 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$114 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $390 −$371 -95%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $164 +$4 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $198 −$189 -95%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $566 −$555 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,579 −$335 -21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $635 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $305 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $27 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 224 history records