Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:00:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x8291…e1a2
crypto · 114 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$71 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$70 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized−$70
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses53 / 56
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)109 / 114
History coverage416d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 5 History 109 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$53
14 days−$53
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? No 97¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 79¢ 77¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 59¢ 45¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 35¢ 36¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $42 −$6 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $42 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$17 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$7 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$16 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$14 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$8 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$9 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$8 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$8 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$5 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -32%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 61% −$53
sports 16% −$29
weather 11% −$5
tech 7% +$10
other 3% +$5
world 1% +$3
economics 1% −$1
politics 1% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $17 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -17.0% -24.9% 46% 40% -18.2%
≤30d 87 -14.2% -22.3% 47% 40% -17.6%
≤90d 87 -14.2% -22.3% 47% 40% -17.6%
all 109 -14.3% -22.5% 49% 38% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 38% -16.6%
10% -29.9% 28% -24.6%
15% -36.7% 23% -31.9%
20% -42.9% 19% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.80 · official $20.80 (match) · 329 history records