Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x828f…915b crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$47 (-4%) realized −$87 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate61%17W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$7
other 30% +$34
tech 13% −$90
world 6% −$16
sports 4% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +7.3% -2.9% 70% 60% -10.8%
≤30d 10 +7.3% -2.9% 70% 60% -10.8%
≤90d 15 -4.0% -13.2% 60% 47% -20.9%
all 28 -4.4% -13.5% 61% 39% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 39% -21.4%
10% -21.8% 32% -28.9%
15% -29.3% 18% -35.8%
20% -36.3% 11% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$25 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses17 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage114d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $163 $203 +$40 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$19 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$13 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $70 −$55 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$30 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$11 +39%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $52 +$2 +4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $57 −$5 -9%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 09 $110 −$90 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 30 $73 +$36 +49%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 23 $38 +$3 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 4? Mar 03 $29 +$8 +29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 03 $28 +$4 +15%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 03 $5 $0 +2%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Mar 03 $23 +$6 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $18 +$5 +30%
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? Feb 28 $32 −$23 -72%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 24 $5 $0 -1%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 24 $8 $0 +2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 24 $29 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 24 $8 $0 +5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 24 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $14 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $29 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $70 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $70 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $29 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $29 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $54 16h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 16h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $52 18h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $52 18h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $55 49d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 54d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $52 54d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $57 60d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.87 · official $202.87 (match) · 161 history records