Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:17:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x828e…c21b other 176 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d only
✗ bot/MM pace (131 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$372 (-1%) realized −$236 · open −$136
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%63W / 130L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day130.7pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$618now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,121
7 days−$1,483
14 days−$2,122
30 days−$1,416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$746
other 38% +$879
sports 9% −$471
politics 1% −$173
tech 0% −$18
finance 0% −$69
crypto 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (131 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -40.6% -46.3% 22% 19% -25.3%
≤30d 193 +3.6% -6.3% 33% 27% -8.3%
≤90d 193 +3.6% -6.3% 33% 27% -8.3%
all 193 +3.6% -6.3% 33% 27% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover130.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 27% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 20% -17.1%
15% -23.5% 16% -25.1%
20% -31.0% 15% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +48% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$42 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$618
Realized−$236
Unrealized−$136
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses63 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions18
Markets (closed)193 / 176
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$144
Trades / day130.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 56¢ $231 $232 +$1 (+0%)
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $122 $121 −$1 (-1%)
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? Yes 52¢ 40¢ $74 $58 −$16 (-22%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $45 $42 −$4 (-8%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Yes 17¢ 16¢ $43 $38 −$4 (-11%)
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $66 $22 −$44 (-66%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 3¢ 3¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $61 $13 −$48 (-79%)
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 3¢ 3¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-12%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $13 $8 −$4 (-34%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 5¢ 6¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $10 $7 −$4 (-34%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $9 $2 −$6 (-72%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 123 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Jun 27 $3 −$4 -152%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 27 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 27 $29 −$32 -108%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 27 $37 −$50 -136%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 27 $40 −$26 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 27 $1 −$44 -4599%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 27 $5 −$10 -215%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 27 $75 −$72 -95%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 27 $20 −$19 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 27 $36 −$26 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 27 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 27 $21 −$42 -198%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 27 $17 −$14 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 27 $33 −$51 -156%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 27 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 27 $26 −$30 -115%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 27 $187 −$180 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 27 $3 −$35 -1090%
Will Trump Leave China on May 14? Jun 27 $11 −$5 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 27 $73 −$99 -135%
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 27 $17 −$21 -124%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 27 $1 +$2 +320%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 27 $1 −$4 -371%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? Jun 27 $29 +$124 +427%
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel? Jun 27 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 27 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o Jun 27 $6 +$1 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 27 $41 −$37 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $347 +$49 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $85 −$38 -45%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $53 −$28 -53%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $15 +$4 +26%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $33 −$33 -100%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $19 +$81 +432%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $56 −$56 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 2¢ $2 20m
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 1¢ $1 21m
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 48¢ $15 33m
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 48¢ $0 37m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $18 39m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $3 52m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 52m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 53m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 53m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 55m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 56m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 56m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $0 1h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 52¢ $29 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 54¢ $4 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 54¢ $2 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 55¢ $30 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 53¢ $79 1h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $3 1h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $0 1h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $617.79 · official $617.79 (match) · 3500 history records