Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:47:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x828b…df45 other 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$20
politics 24% −$10
sports 12% +$23
tech 4% −$1
crypto 4% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 84 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 125 -1.1% -10.5% 11% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 6% -9.6%
10% -19.1% 5% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×7.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage131d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $274 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $334 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $491 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $178 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $198 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $222 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $244 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $207 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 20 $172 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $213 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $196 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 12 $208 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 11 $253 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $295 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 18 $281 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $337 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 17 $284 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $252 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 16 $262 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $560 −$1 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $265 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 15 $338 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $275 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $316 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $243 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $267 $0 +0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $332 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $1,182 −$1 -0%
Will Keegan Bradley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $324 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $288 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $281 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 16h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd SELL No 100¢ $29 6d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd BUY No 100¢ $29 6d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 6d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 6d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 6d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 9d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 12d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $26 13d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $26 14d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $200 21d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $200 26d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $178 26d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $178 26d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 28d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 29d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $222 29d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $222 29d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $244 29d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $244 30d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $207 30d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $207 30d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $240 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 390 history records