Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:12:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x828b…87a6
weather · 600 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$647 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$555 · open −$92
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$114
Realized−$555
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses132 / 423
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions45
Markets (closed)555 / 600
History coverage63d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 45 History 555 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$134
7 days−$1,854
14 days−$1,770
30 days−$1,459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? No 65¢ 60¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-7%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 47¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? No 63¢ 66¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) IR Iran 25¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 38¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Panama 9¢ 10¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Yes 23¢ 25¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Paraguay 8¢ 8¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Tunisia 7¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-51%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-85%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Yes 17¢ 3¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +53%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +88%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$13 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$9 +343%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$4 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$2 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$4 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 97% −$636
sports 3% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $7 4m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $7 4m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $8 4m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $8 4m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $8 4m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $8 5m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $8 5m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $8 5m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $8 5m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $8 5m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $9 6m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $9 6m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $33 6m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL Yes 92¢ $11 7m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-39.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 483 -47.1% -52.2% 18% 16% -63.6%
≤30d 517 -40.1% -45.8% 20% 18% -44.4%
≤90d 555 -33.0% -39.3% 24% 21% -21.4%
all 555 -33.0% -39.3% 24% 21% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.3% 21% -21.4%
10% ← realistic here -45.1% 18% -28.9%
15% -50.4% 15% -35.8%
20% -55.3% 11% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.01 · official $114.02 (match) · 2118 history records