Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:57:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x828b…a12b
crypto · 473 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,423 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,443 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,905
Realized−$3,443
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses153 / 399
Open positions2
Markets (closed)552 / 473
History coverage5d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day470.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 552 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,320
7 days−$3,443
14 days−$3,443
30 days−$3,443
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $100 $200 +$100 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Up 44¢ 100¢ $66 $151 +$85 (+130%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $75 $150 +$75 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $75 $150 +$75 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $75 $150 +$75 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $75 $150 +$75 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $75 $150 +$75 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $75 $150 +$75 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $75 $150 +$75 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $75 $150 +$75 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $75 $150 +$75 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 50¢ 55¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Up 55¢ 100¢ $28 $51 +$23 (+81%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Up 54¢ 100¢ $28 $51 +$24 (+85%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 52¢ 100¢ $27 $51 +$24 (+91%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Up 68¢ 100¢ $35 $51 +$16 (+47%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Up 58¢ 100¢ $29 $50 +$21 (+73%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $25 $50 +$25 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $25 $50 +$25 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $25 $50 +$25 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $25 $50 +$25 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $25 $50 +$25 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $25 $50 +$25 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $25 $50 +$25 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $25 $50 +$25 (+100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$5 -435%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $92 −$89 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$22 -128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$2 -671%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$17 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$35 -1270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$11 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$14 +918%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$31 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$11 +337%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $68 −$58 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$24 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$14 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4PM ET Jun 12 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$32 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$17 -119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7AM ET Jun 12 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$2,135
other 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $86 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $12 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $6 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $13 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $8 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $6 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $15 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $25 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $19 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $12 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $50 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $15 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $18 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $13 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $14 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $8 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 552 -16.8% -24.7% 28% 23% -19.7%
≤30d 552 -16.8% -24.7% 28% 23% -19.7%
≤90d 552 -16.8% -24.7% 28% 23% -19.7%
all 552 -16.8% -24.7% 28% 23% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover470.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 23% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 18% -27.4%
15% -38.5% 15% -34.4%
20% -44.5% 12% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,905.49 · official $2,900.74 (match) · 3500 history records