Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:29:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x828a…bef1 crypto 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$14 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate78%184W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days−$1
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$6
sports 17% −$10
other 8% $0
finance 6% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +11.9% +1.2% 100% 32% +0.9%
≤30d 83 -12.2% -20.6% 76% 39% -19.5%
≤90d 206 -8.4% -17.2% 76% 37% -14.0%
all 236 -6.6% -15.5% 78% 36% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 36% -12.9%
10% -23.5% 12% -21.3%
15% -30.9% 6% -28.9%
20% -37.7% 4% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses184 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)236 / 238
History coverage231d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Over 87¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +23%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +6%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 +12%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $1 $0 +27%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 1? Jun 01 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +21%
UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Degerfors IF vs. IF Brommapojkarna: O/U 1.5 May 31 $2 +$1 +35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $5 +$2 +40%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $1 $0 +20%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 0.5 May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 26 $3 $0 +9%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May? May 26 $4 $0 +11%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +2%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5 May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 0.5 May 23 $1 $0 +8%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 22? May 22 $2 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1 3h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1 19h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 19h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 19h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1 22h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $2 25h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 92¢ $1 28h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $1 29h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Up 89¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 85¢ $1 35h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $1 2d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 12? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 11? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 11? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 11? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 3d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1 4d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.31 · official $5.31 (match) · 617 history records