Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x8288…5519
other · 165 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$14,474 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16,625 · open +$2,299
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,032
Realized−$16,625
Unrealized+$2,299
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses56 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)21%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions21
Markets (closed)171 / 165
History coverage60d
Avg bet$1,195
Trades / day46.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit1%
Chart Positions 21 History 171 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,585
7 days−$8,288
14 days−$7,891
30 days−$16,841
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 21¢ 69¢ $848 $2,799 +$1,951 (+230%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 10¢ 50¢ $300 $1,515 +$1,215 (+405%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 10¢ 40¢ $300 $1,215 +$915 (+305%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 10¢ 28¢ $418 $1,119 +$701 (+168%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $300 $158 −$142 (-48%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $152 $124 −$28 (-19%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $300 $56 −$244 (-82%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $300 $16 −$284 (-94%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-17%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $225 $3 −$222 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $54 $2 −$52 (-97%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $115 $2 −$114 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $115 $2 −$114 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $115 $2 −$114 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $115 $2 −$114 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $115 $2 −$114 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $300 $2 −$298 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $115 $2 −$114 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $115 $2 −$114 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $115 $2 −$114 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $300 $2 −$298 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $1,500 $0 −$1,500 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 12 $105 −$111 -105%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 12 $290 −$300 -103%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 12 $90 −$111 -124%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3,000 −$2,997 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $3,000 −$2,997 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $5,618 +$3,056 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $215 −$94 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $1,218 −$1,218 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $529 +$4,350 +822%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3 +$3 +99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $507 +$2,990 +590%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $84 +$76 +92%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1,193 +$2,956 +248%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $565 +$18 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $3,000 −$2,997 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,081 +$3,391 +314%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $320 −$257 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $675 −$656 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $1,295 +$3,806 +294%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $4 +$4 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $1,249 −$1,154 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $2,449 +$4,719 +193%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 02 $231 −$94 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 02 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 02 $890 +$3,184 +358%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $80 +$357 +445%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 99% −$11,761
sports 1% −$8
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +3.3% -6.6% 27% 23% -30.0%
≤30d 81 +13.8% +3.0% 31% 28% -23.8%
≤90d 171 +43.5% +29.9% 33% 30% -18.4%
all 171 +43.5% +29.9% 33% 30% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.9% 30% -18.4%
10% +17.4% 30% -26.2%
15% ← realistic here +6.1% 29% -33.3%
20% -4.3% 29% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,031.59 · official $7,031.59 (match) · 3500 history records