Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:27:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8284…2723 other 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3,188 (-2%) realized −$3,188 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate27%33W / 88L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,113per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$763now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$11
14 days−$21
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$290
politics 34% −$55
sports 18% −$2,837
economics 3% −$4
culture 3% −$3
tech 2% $0
world 1% −$12
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 57 -18.9% -26.6% 7% 2% -13.3%
all 121 -2.4% -11.7% 27% 10% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 10% -11.7%
10% -20.2% 9% -20.2%
15% -27.9% 8% -27.9%
20% -34.9% 7% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,536) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$40 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$763
Realized−$3,188
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses33 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage139d
Avg bet$1,113
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $763 $763 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,352 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,221 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,106 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $1,384 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,448 −$3 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $776 −$1 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $1,633 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,400 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,238 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $1,463 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,573 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,594 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,536 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $1,617 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,603 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,127 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,554 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,240 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $2,183 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $3,938 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,326 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,330 −$3 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 06 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,532 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $1,214 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $749 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $820 +$2 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $1,826 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,990 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $8,992 −$9 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $4,742 −$5 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $2,514 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $4,214 −$4 -0%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 13 $1,299 −$1,299 -100%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $1,257 −$1 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 08 $50 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 05 $42 −$13 -30%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 03 $65 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Mar 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-02-14? Mar 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Rockets vs. Thunder Mar 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Suns (-7.5) Mar 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Utah vs. Blackhawks Mar 24 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-22? Mar 24 $93 −$93 -100%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-14.5) Mar 24 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 24 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-02? Mar 24 $156 −$156 -100%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 24 $1,481 −$1,481 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $763 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,350 45h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,352 2d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,219 3d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,221 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,104 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,106 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,382 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,384 4d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,325 4d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,328 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,129 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,130 5d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $776 9d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $776 9d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,630 9d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,633 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,398 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,400 13d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,216 13d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,218 13d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,039 13d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,040 14d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,461 14d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,463 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,006 16d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,008 16d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,592 19d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,594 19d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,535 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $762.88 · official $762.88 (match) · 383 history records