Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:53:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x827f…8027 sports 520 markets active 1h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$817 (-6%) realized −$817 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%274W / 246L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$111est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$345
14 days+$342
30 days+$353
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$1,360
crypto 23% +$140
other 20% +$364
world 3% −$80
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +10.9% +0.4% 77% 64% +17.8%
≤30d 51 +0.2% -9.4% 73% 49% -0.9%
≤90d 510 -5.1% -14.2% 53% 47% -15.9%
all 520 -4.8% -13.9% 53% 48% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 48% -15.1%
10% -22.1% 41% -23.3%
15% -29.7% 35% -30.7%
20% -36.6% 29% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$16 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$817
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses274 / 246
Est. fees paid−$111
Open positions0
Markets (closed)520 / 520
History coverage195d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 520 Trades
no open positions (128 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $66 +$9 +14%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $11 +$2 +18%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $47 +$3 +6%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $14 +$17 +117%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $221 +$30 +14%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $66 +$11 +16%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $86 −$1 -1%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $48 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $112 +$36 +33%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $43 +$7 +16%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $25 −$1 -5%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $39 +$1 +3%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $45 +$17 +39%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $20 +$2 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $25 +$5 +18%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $98 +$22 +23%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $19 +$6 +33%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $135 +$194 +144%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $6 +$2 +28%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 −$3 -88%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $150 +$6 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $42 −$19 -44%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $173 −$173 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $14 +$6 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +156%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $29 +$1 +5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $35 +$10 +29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $141 +$72 +51%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $43 −$29 -66%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $39 +$5 +12%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $592 +$121 +20%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $82 −$81 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $145 +$36 +25%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $753 +$46 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$6 +96%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $13 −$4 -29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $18 +$1 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $32 +$3 +9%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $28 +$17 +60%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $21 +$4 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $48 +$4 +9%
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 26 $92 +$4 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $75 51m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 51m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 84¢ $2 56m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 82¢ $6 56m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $50 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 33¢ $3 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 90¢ $16 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 28¢ $3 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 83¢ $3 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 83¢ $4 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 83¢ $8 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $47 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $66 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $6 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $8 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 76¢ $23 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 76¢ $7 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 76¢ $2 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $48 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 46¢ $19 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 87¢ $31 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 53¢ $66 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 33¢ $21 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 81¢ $25 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 88¢ $13 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 88¢ $18 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $12 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 47¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2014 history records