Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:43:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x827c…4a4a other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate5%3W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$11
crypto 14% −$2
tech 12% −$6
world 10% −$2
politics 9% −$1
economics 9% −$1
finance 4% −$1
sports 4% −$13
weather 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 61 -4.0% -13.1% 5% 3% -9.9%
all 61 -4.0% -13.1% 5% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 3% -9.9%
10% -21.4% 3% -18.5%
15% -29.0% 3% -26.4%
20% -36.0% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$3 · ×15.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses3 / 58
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage79d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 24 $128 $0 -0%
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Jun 21 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 18 $162 $0 -0%
Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 15 $70 $0 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $105 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $130 −$1 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $70 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $105 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? Jun 01 $20 $0 -2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 30 $135 $0 -0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 28 $44 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $330 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 27 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 24? May 23 $140 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30? May 21 $110 −$3 -3%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 18 $81 −$2 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 15 $110 $0 -0%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 10 $105 −$1 -1%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 07 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $100 $0 -0%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 30 $73 −$73 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 25 $200 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 25 $100 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Apr 21 $100 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $308 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $200 $0 -0%
Will Deutsche Bank or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Apr 17 $200 $0 -0%
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 17 $100 $0 -0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 17 $69 +$91 +133%
AI bubble burst in 2026? Apr 15 $100 −$2 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 15? Apr 15 $220 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 15 $300 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $300 $0 -0%
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 Apr 13 $200 $0 -0%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Apr 13 $300 $0 -0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting? Apr 13 $300 $0 -0%
Will Colby Donaldson win Survivor Season 50? Apr 13 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $128 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $128 3d
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL No 100¢ $100 7d
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $162 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $162 9d
Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 12d
Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 12d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $60 12d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $60 12d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $105 16d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $105 16d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $100 18d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 18d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? SELL No 94¢ $129 20d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 95¢ $130 20d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $70 22d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $70 22d
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $90 24d
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $90 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $105 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $105 26d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? SELL No 93¢ $20 26d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? BUY No 94¢ $20 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $135 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $135 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records