Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:36:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8279…faee sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$5
other 19% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -26.9% -33.9% 0% 0% -36.4%
≤30d 3 -26.9% -33.9% 0% 0% -36.4%
≤90d 3 -26.9% -33.9% 0% 0% -36.4%
all 3 -26.9% -33.9% 0% 0% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.9% 0% -36.4%
10% -40.2% 0% -42.5%
15% -46.0% 0% -48.1%
20% -51.3% 0% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? No 80¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Norway 30¢ 8¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -13%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $2 30m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 29¢ $2 30m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 30¢ $2 30m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 30¢ $2 30m
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 79¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 43¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 79¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 79¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $2 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.25 · official $3.25 (match) · 16 history records