Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
82 0x8278…ec8c crypto 208 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$36 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate59%105W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$12
14 days+$11
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$33
crypto 38% −$8
other 5% −$3
world 5% −$12
weather 1% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -4.6% -13.7% 62% 47% -2.5%
≤30d 168 -6.6% -15.5% 62% 40% -10.9%
≤90d 179 -7.6% -16.4% 59% 38% -11.5%
all 179 -7.6% -16.4% 59% 38% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 38% -11.5%
10% -24.4% 27% -20.0%
15% -31.7% 17% -27.7%
20% -38.4% 13% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses105 / 74
Open positions29
Markets (closed)179 / 208
History coverage44d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? No 92¢ 92¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 96¢ 97¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 96¢ 99¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 85¢ 88¢ $13 $13 +$1 (+4%)
Will John Myrick win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 99¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? No 72¢ 78¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+9%)
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 95¢ 98¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? No 85¢ 87¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? No 84¢ 80¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? No 91¢ 86¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 88¢ 87¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 85¢ 81¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? No 68¢ 52¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-22%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 95¢ 81¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-15%)
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? No 92¢ 73¢ $12 $9 −$2 (-21%)
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 73¢ 80¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 73¢ 99¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+36%)
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? No 95¢ 91¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 91¢ 61¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-33%)
Will Alex Pelbath be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? No 90¢ 81¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Will Sam McCown be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? No 95¢ 55¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-42%)
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 89¢ 45¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Constance N. Johnson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic pr Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +51%
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prim Jun 12 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primar Jun 12 $6 +$1 +9%
Will any World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad? Jun 11 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Chris Mathys advance from the CA-22 Primary? Jun 10 $9 $0 +3%
Will Billy Webster win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic pri Jun 10 $8 +$2 +28%
Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 09 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$4 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 09 $12 +$5 +43%
Will Garrett Mason win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary elec Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will Mullins McLeod win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic pr Jun 09 $4 $0 +2%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$3 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 05 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will Dusty Johnson win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican prima Jun 05 $6 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $15 2h
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY No 92¢ $15 2h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary BUY No 99¢ $4 26h
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY No 96¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 2d
Will John Myrick win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary ele BUY No 99¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258.11 · official $258.01 (match) · 502 history records