Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:23:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
82 0x8277…dce0 other 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$705 (+9%) realized +$697 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%70W / 92L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$75
14 days+$498
30 days+$622
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$176
crypto 27% +$311
sports 26% +$54
world 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -13.0% -21.3% 37% 37% -5.8%
≤30d 157 +25.6% +13.6% 45% 43% +1.3%
≤90d 162 +21.7% +10.1% 43% 41% -0.9%
all 162 +21.7% +10.1% 43% 41% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.1% 41% -0.9%
10% -0.4% 36% -10.4%
15% -10.1% 32% -19.0%
20% -18.9% 29% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$24 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$697
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses70 / 92
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions2
Markets (closed)162 / 164
History coverage60d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $20 $41 +$21 (+105%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $47 −$25 -54%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$12 -57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$11 +42%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$23 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$32 +62%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $61 −$39 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $77 +$49 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$21 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $20 −$19 -92%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $58 +$13 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $113 +$45 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $42 −$36 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $83 −$75 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $165 +$47 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $153 +$46 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$47 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $195 −$30 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $255 +$53 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$28 +69%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $41 +$107 +262%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $111 +$37 +33%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $304 +$189 +62%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $262 +$153 +58%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$3 -8%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $204 −$157 -77%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $631 −$111 -18%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$11 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$109 +54%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$6 -56%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $72 −$70 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $132 −$100 -76%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$6 -29%
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Jun 18 $51 +$45 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 31m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $61 33m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 50m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 45¢ $19 57m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 58m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 1h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 53¢ $44 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $83 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 0¢ $0 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 9¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $126 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.94 · official $127.94 (match) · 488 history records