Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:50:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8277…c7d9 crypto 874 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$422 (+1%) realized +$422 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%868W / 6L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$137
14 days+$308
30 days+$390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$386
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 639 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 874 +0.3% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.0%
all 874 +0.3% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 0% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$44 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$422
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses868 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)874 / 874
History coverage36d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 874 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $208 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $206 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $205 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $203 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $199 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $197 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $195 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $193 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $192 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $190 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $188 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $184 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $183 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $181 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $179 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $178 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $176 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $174 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $148 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $148 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $151 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $147 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $148 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $148 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $94 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $96 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $94 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $139 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $136 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $138 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $137 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $129 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $125 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $126 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $129 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $127 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $208 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $206 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $205 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $199 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $197 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $195 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $193 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $192 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $190 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $188 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $184 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $183 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $181 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $179 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $178 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $176 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $174 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $148 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $148 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $150 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $150 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $151 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $150 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $150 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $147 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $148 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $148 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $149 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1742 history records