Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:10:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8270…7ec7 sports 253 markets active 2d ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%145W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day26.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$68
14 days−$78
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$46
sports 42% +$19
other 4% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +4.6% -5.4% 48% 37% -34.3%
≤30d 253 -2.1% -11.5% 57% 49% -15.3%
≤90d 253 -2.1% -11.5% 57% 49% -15.3%
all 253 -2.1% -11.5% 57% 49% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 49% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 28% -23.4%
15% -27.7% 20% -30.8%
20% -34.8% 11% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses145 / 108
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)253 / 253
History coverage23d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 253 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$4 -78%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 +$1 +39%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $6 −$3 -45%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 +$19 +1577%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 +$4 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +33%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4 $0 -11%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $4 +$31 +818%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +30%
United States vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4 +$3 +90%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $2 +$3 +134%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $2 +$2 +105%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +31%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $6 −$2 -35%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +46%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $1 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $1 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $1 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $1 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 73¢ $1 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $1 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 81¢ $2 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $1 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 70¢ $2 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $1 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 13¢ $1 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 68¢ $3 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $1 39h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $1 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $1 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $2 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 675 history records