Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:32:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x826e…8d34 crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$459 (-97%) realized −$459 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$200
sports 32% −$150
crypto 24% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$58 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$459
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 24 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $32 −$32 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $21 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 27h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 27h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 27h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 27h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records