Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:28:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x826c…4733 other 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 247L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$31
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$41
sports 23% −$24
politics 8% −$10
crypto 7% −$6
economics 6% −$5
culture 5% −$7
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 257 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)257 / 257
History coverage139d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 257 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $225 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $573 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $419 $0 +0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $124 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $531 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $590 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $212 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $456 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $250 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $826 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $519 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $793 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $130 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $578 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $448 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $597 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $140 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $147 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $393 −$2 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $326 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $550 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $193 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $137 $0 +0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $124 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $344 −$2 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $336 −$2 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $63 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $64 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 1h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 3h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 4h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 5h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 7h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 8h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 10h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 11h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 13h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 15h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 17h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 19h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 19h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 20h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 26h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 28h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 29h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 30h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 32h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 34h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $54 38h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $55 39h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $21 41h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $21 42h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 44h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 45h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 47h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1465 history records