Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:50:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x826c…2101 sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-3%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%10W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$2
sports 19% +$1
other 7% −$11
politics 7% $0
crypto 5% −$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.2% -11.5% 25% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 7 -15.3% -23.4% 43% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 7 -15.3% -23.4% 43% 0% -10.7%
all 27 -14.5% -22.6% 37% 0% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 0% -12.5%
10% -30.0% 0% -20.9%
15% -36.8% 0% -28.5%
20% -43.0% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses10 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage483d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $80 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $29 −$3 -9%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $32 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $29 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 14 $12 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times April 4 - 11? Apr 13 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 23 $11 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 13 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $12 $0 +0%
Wofford vs. Western Carolina Mar 04 $0 $0 -100%
VCU vs. Richmond Mar 04 $11 +$1 +10%
Bucknell vs. Loyola Maryland Feb 25 $10 $0 +2%
The Citadel vs. Furman Feb 25 $11 $0 +0%
Austin Peay vs. West Georgia Feb 25 $10 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Pacers Feb 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will the CDU/CSU win between 28% and 30% of the vote in the German ele Feb 25 $11 $0 -1%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 25 $11 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $26 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $26 4h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $17 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $9 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $26 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $25 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $25 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $29 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $29 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $25 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $29 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $27 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $29 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $13 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $18 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $32 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $30 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $28 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $1 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $31 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $31 9d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 75¢ $1 429d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 75¢ $11 429d
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL No 96¢ $12 430d
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 96¢ $12 430d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $11 430d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $11 431d
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times April 4 - 11? BUY No 98¢ $11 435d
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? SELL No 97¢ $6 436d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records