Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x826a…b27c
crypto · 1057 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$809 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$779 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$121
Realized−$779
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses859 / 322
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1181 / 1057
History coverage34d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day64.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 2 History 1181 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$802
7 days−$842
14 days−$788
30 days−$770
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 85¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 93¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Aix en Provence: Alex Michelsen vs Pol Martin Tiffon Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 13 $21 −$37 -179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -268%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% +$33
other 5% +$11
economics 1% +$12
world 0% +$7
sports 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $29 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $29 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $20 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $33 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $33 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $19 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 459 -27.6% -34.5% 61% 30% -18.5%
≤30d 1014 -13.8% -22.0% 71% 36% -14.3%
≤90d 1181 -12.1% -20.5% 73% 36% -13.9%
all 1181 -12.1% -20.5% 73% 36% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover64.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 36% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 13% -22.1%
15% -35.1% 5% -29.6%
20% -41.4% 3% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.37 · official $120.76 (match) · 3500 history records