Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:13:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8266…a1cb other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-5%) realized −$122 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$436now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$85
sports 34% −$74
crypto 27% −$162
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -29.4% -36.1% 33% 33% -40.2%
≤30d 6 -29.4% -36.1% 33% 33% -40.2%
≤90d 6 -29.4% -36.1% 33% 33% -40.2%
all 6 -29.4% -36.1% 33% 33% -40.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.1% 33% -40.2%
10% -42.2% 33% -46.0%
15% -47.8% 33% -51.2%
20% -52.9% 33% -56.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$105 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$436
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)6 / 14
History coverage7d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 100¢ $100 $172 +$72 (+72%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-1%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 42¢ $58 $56 −$2 (-3%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $80 −$79 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $45 +$36 +79%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 21 $203 −$162 -80%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $133 −$132 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $48 −$47 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $135 +$167 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $436.31 · official $436.31 (match) · 19 history records