Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:21:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
82 0x8265…0068 world 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate65%15W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$3
other 20% $0
politics 6% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 1% −$6
weather 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.8% -7.0% 60% 20% -8.2%
≤30d 10 +1.4% -8.2% 50% 10% -8.9%
≤90d 10 +1.4% -8.2% 50% 10% -8.9%
all 23 +3.3% -6.6% 65% 9% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 9% -9.0%
10% -15.5% 4% -17.7%
15% -23.7% 4% -25.7%
20% -31.2% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses15 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage492d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $35 +$1 +2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $13 +$2 +12%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $39 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $108 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $34 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 27 $7 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Mar 19 $7 $0 +0%
March Madness: 8 first round upsets? Mar 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 29-30°F on February 20? Mar 05 $4 +$5 +150%
Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State Mar 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $40 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $40 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $40 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $40 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 56¢ $6 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 56¢ $30 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $35 35h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $15 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $17 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $32 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $3 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $4 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $29 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $34 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $2 21d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $3 21d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $1 21d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $3 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records