Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:25:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8265…c336 sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$144 (-2%) realized +$220 · open −$364
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%18W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$204
14 days−$116
30 days−$616
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$516
other 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -33.6% -40.0% 50% 50% -58.2%
≤90d 14 +6.1% -4.0% 64% 64% -14.4%
all 30 +7.3% -2.9% 60% 60% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 60% -11.9%
10% -12.2% 57% -20.3%
15% -20.7% 47% -28.0%
20% -28.5% 27% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$193 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized+$220
Unrealized−$364
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses18 / 12
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage178d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm New York Liberty 77¢ 25¢ $539 $175 −$364 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $206 −$204 -99%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $141 +$59 +42%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 16 $120 +$29 +24%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $396 −$387 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $157 −$156 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier P May 28 $136 +$44 +32%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 15 $124 +$16 +13%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 03 $389 −$387 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns May 03 $238 +$65 +27%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 25 $404 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 23 $227 +$90 +40%
Panthers vs. Senators Apr 23 $402 +$148 +37%
76ers vs. Heat Apr 09 $220 +$276 +126%
Red Wings vs. Sabres Mar 30 $160 +$230 +144%
Lakers vs. Magic Mar 21 $365 −$365 -100%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 21 $612 +$638 +104%
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights Mar 17 $340 +$160 +47%
Canadiens vs. Kings Mar 11 $92 +$108 +118%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Mar 11 $419 −$419 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 02 $80 −$80 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Feb 26 $133 −$133 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou Feb 22 $52 +$36 +70%
Celtics vs. Lakers Feb 22 $53 −$53 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs Feb 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Feb 15 $53 +$24 +45%
Heat vs. Bulls Feb 04 $32 +$14 +45%
Rockets vs. Pistons Feb 04 $24 +$36 +150%
76ers vs. Grizzlies Feb 04 $39 +$36 +92%
Spurs vs. Hornets Feb 04 $95 +$155 +163%
Wild vs. Predators Feb 04 $55 −$55 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY New York Liberty 77¢ $543 1h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 68¢ $206 4d
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Felix Gill 70¢ $141 10d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY Virtus.pro 80¢ $120 16d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 25¢ $396 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Hubert Hurkacz 77¢ $157 28d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier P BUY Movistar KOI 75¢ $136 41d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 88¢ $124 51d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 86¢ $389 54d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Thunder 78¢ $238 61d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $404 61d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $404 64d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 71¢ $227 68d
Panthers vs. Senators BUY Senators 73¢ $402 77d
76ers vs. Heat BUY Heat 44¢ $220 87d
Red Wings vs. Sabres BUY Red Wings 41¢ $37 90d
Red Wings vs. Sabres BUY Red Wings 41¢ $123 90d
Lakers vs. Magic BUY Magic 42¢ $42 96d
Lakers vs. Magic BUY Magic 42¢ $132 96d
Lakers vs. Magic BUY Magic 42¢ $168 96d
Lakers vs. Magic BUY Magic 42¢ $23 96d
Clippers vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 49¢ $24 100d
Clippers vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 49¢ $588 100d
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 68¢ $136 103d
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 68¢ $204 103d
Cavaliers vs. Magic BUY Cavaliers 60¢ $419 106d
Canadiens vs. Kings BUY Canadiens 46¢ $92 110d
Counter-Strike: NIP vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 BUY NIP 59¢ $80 115d
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 38¢ $133 119d
Celtics vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 48¢ $53 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.00 · official $175.00 (match) · 57 history records