Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:48:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8257…da02 other 442 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$26,584 (+9%) realized +$25,335 · open +$1,249
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate33%271W / 560L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$641per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$10,111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 103d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$40,831
world 18% +$3,734
politics 12% +$864
finance 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 385 -91.1% -92.0% 6% 1% -71.8%
≤30d 471 -74.9% -77.3% 14% 3% -44.8%
≤90d 791 -41.3% -46.9% 32% 10% -31.7%
all 831 -28.0% -34.8% 33% 11% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.8% 11% -29.0%
10% ← realistic here -41.1% 8% -35.8%
15% -46.8% 7% -42.0%
20% -52.0% 6% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +40% → late -96% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$166 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$10,111
Realized+$25,335
Unrealized+$1,249
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses271 / 560
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions61
Markets (closed)831 / 442
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$641
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 61 History 831 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? No 36¢ 98¢ $821 $2,213 +$1,392 (+169%)
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $2,091 $2,122 +$32 (+2%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $2,000 $2,014 +$14 (+1%)
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,320 $1,339 +$20 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 95¢ $735 $757 +$22 (+3%)
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? No 45¢ 91¢ $236 $475 +$239 (+102%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 97¢ 100¢ $290 $299 +$9 (+3%)
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $219 $224 +$5 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 81¢ 86¢ $162 $173 +$11 (+7%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 18¢ 83¢ $35 $165 +$130 (+367%)
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 28¢ 40¢ $49 $69 +$20 (+41%)
Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026? No 53¢ 78¢ $30 $44 +$14 (+48%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 89¢ 100¢ $38 $43 +$5 (+12%)
Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30? No 27¢ 86¢ $11 $33 +$23 (+214%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $18 $12 −$5 (-30%)
Will Progressive Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $60 $9 −$50 (-84%)
Will Lana – Social Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $56 $9 −$47 (-84%)
Will Hezbollah win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $27 $8 −$19 (-69%)
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+319%)
Will Kataeb Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $49 $6 −$43 (-87%)
Will Watani Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $43 $6 −$37 (-87%)
Will National Dialogue Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $42 $5 −$38 (-89%)
Will Khatt Ahmar win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $58 $5 −$53 (-92%)
Will Dignity Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $63 $4 −$58 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 439 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 20 $41 −$66 -162%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? Jun 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 20 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 20 $126 −$134 -106%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 20 $73 −$68 -93%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 13 to Mar Jun 20 $92 −$94 -103%
Will Khamenei post 80-99 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 20 $48 −$152 -316%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 20 $2 −$64 -4225%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? Jun 20 $54 −$54 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 110 and 120 million views on wee Jun 20 $186 −$186 -100%
Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$65 -643%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 20 $5 −$109 -2006%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Khamenei post 120-139 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$152 -198%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -106%
Will Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will White House post 60-79 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 20 $105 −$137 -130%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$52 -1643%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $120 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $42 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $70 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $184 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $70 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $170 2h
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $4 5h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 15h
Will Hezbollah win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary e SELL Yes 1¢ $1 18h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 18h
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $156 19h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 19h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $255 19h
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $306 21h
Will Islamic Charitable Projects Association win the most seats in the SELL Yes 0¢ $1 21h
Will Union Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary SELL Yes 0¢ $3 21h
Will ReLebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary e SELL Yes 0¢ $1 21h
Will Marada Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamen SELL Yes 0¢ $1 21h
Will Kataeb Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentar SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will Taqaddom Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliament SELL Yes 0¢ $3 21h
Will Popular Nasserist Organization win the most seats in the 2026 Leb SELL Yes 0¢ $4 21h
Will Taqaddom Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliament SELL Yes 0¢ $1 21h
Will ReLebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary e SELL Yes 0¢ $3 21h
Will Marada Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamen SELL Yes 0¢ $1 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $30 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,110.93 · official $10,110.93 (match) · 3500 history records