Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:24:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8256…dc50 other 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$209 (-22%) realized −$208 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%25W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$87
14 days−$202
30 days−$233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$80
other 37% −$148
sports 5% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -53.6% -58.0% 20% 18% -47.6%
≤30d 90 -36.4% -42.4% 28% 27% -33.1%
≤90d 90 -36.4% -42.4% 28% 27% -33.1%
all 90 -36.4% -42.4% 28% 27% -33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.4% 27% -33.1%
10% -47.9% 24% -39.5%
15% -53.0% 22% -45.3%
20% -57.6% 19% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$208
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses25 / 65
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)90 / 98
History coverage16d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Iraq leading at halftime? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Iraq to win the second half? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$4 +180%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +18%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 −$4 -57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +72%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$8 +152%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $6 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -61%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -15%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -48%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $4 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +70%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 1PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$5 +156%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 12PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 11AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3AM ET Jun 05 $9 −$6 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 23¢ $3 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 14h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 14h
Iraq to win the second half? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 14h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 14h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 66¢ $3 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 20¢ $3 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Over 36¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $2 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $3 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $7 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $13 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.79 · official $24.79 (match) · 182 history records