Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
82 0x8255…cba9 sports 657 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$319 (+2%) realized +$525 · open −$206
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate51%344W / 324L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day70.6pace
Fees−$145est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2,739now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$177
7 days+$178
14 days+$180
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$243
other 24% +$213
world 3% +$9
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 235 -34.6% -40.8% 48% 30% -6.8%
≤30d 606 -15.4% -23.5% 52% 39% -9.3%
≤90d 668 -15.1% -23.2% 51% 39% -8.7%
all 668 -15.1% -23.2% 51% 39% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 39% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 30% -17.5%
15% -37.2% 22% -25.4%
20% -43.4% 16% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$2,739
Realized+$525
Unrealized−$206
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses344 / 324
Est. fees paid−$145
Open positions61
Markets (closed)668 / 657
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day70.6
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 61 History 668 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 59¢ 100¢ $164 $276 +$112 (+69%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? No 89¢ 99¢ $244 $271 +$28 (+11%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? No 93¢ 100¢ $251 $270 +$19 (+7%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? No 72¢ 76¢ $245 $261 +$15 (+6%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 32¢ 66¢ $119 $245 +$126 (+106%)
Belgium leading at halftime? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $145 $213 +$68 (+47%)
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 3 IR Iran? No 99¢ 99¢ $135 $134 −$0 (-0%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? No 64¢ 55¢ $156 $133 −$23 (-15%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) IR Iran 84¢ 90¢ $68 $72 +$5 (+7%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 69¢ 34¢ $138 $69 −$69 (-50%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $71 $61 −$10 (-14%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 45¢ 100¢ $26 $57 +$31 (+122%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jordan 38¢ 36¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-7%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? No 90¢ 87¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) IR Iran 95¢ 98¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) New Zealand 55¢ 30¢ $64 $34 −$30 (-46%)
IR Iran leading at halftime? No 79¢ 100¢ $24 $31 +$6 (+27%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $14 $27 +$13 (+94%)
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran? No 87¢ 100¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5 Over 98¢ 100¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? No 91¢ 78¢ $27 $23 −$4 (-14%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? No 93¢ 95¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? No 95¢ 95¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 39¢ 40¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 58¢ $12 $19 +$7 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 249 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 29? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on December 1 Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 3? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 23? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 28? Jun 27 $8 −$12 -145%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 29? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on November 2 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -108%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 26? Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 26? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on November 2 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 1 Jun 27 $2 −$3 -147%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 24? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -101%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 1? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 November 24-30? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -101%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 3? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 24? Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 26? Jun 27 $12 −$13 -106%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $86,000 on November 23? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on December 1 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 26? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $18 −$18 -102%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 November 24-30? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on November 2 Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 28? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 25? Jun 27 $2 −$7 -329%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 29? Jun 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 1? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 23? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on November 2 Jun 27 $2 −$2 -122%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 2? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 24? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 26? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 30? Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 28? Jun 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on November 2 Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 November 24-30? Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on November 2 Jun 27 $3 −$5 -163%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 24? Jun 27 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on November 2 Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 3? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 2? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 25? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 1? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -106%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on November 2 Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 3? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $1 33m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 50¢ $1 35m
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 66¢ $2 35m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY No 17¢ $0 35m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY No 17¢ $1 35m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 7¢ $2 35m
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY No 86¢ $7 35m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY No 20¢ $2 35m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $3 36m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 7¢ $4 36m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 6¢ $1 36m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $9 36m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $2 49m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $6 49m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $10 49m
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY No 85¢ $6 49m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 29¢ $11 50m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $6 50m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $4 50m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $3 50m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 84¢ $11 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 84¢ $32 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $7 1h
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 95¢ $14 1h
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 95¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY No 93¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY No 87¢ $20 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,739.09 · official $2,738.85 (match) · 3500 history records