Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:29:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8255…1e8d sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$558 (-18%) realized −$556 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$1,055now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$53
sports 42% −$584
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-53.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -34.0% -40.3% 29% 29% -44.7%
≤30d 9 -48.6% -53.5% 22% 22% -48.3%
≤90d 9 -48.6% -53.5% 22% 22% -48.3%
all 9 -48.6% -53.5% 22% 22% -48.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.5% 22% -48.3%
10% -58.0% 22% -53.2%
15% -62.0% 22% -57.7%
20% -65.8% 11% -61.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$108 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1,055
Realized−$556
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage7d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $732 $726 −$7 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $325 $330 +$5 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $224 +$80 +36%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $374 −$111 -30%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 −$85 -84%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $511 −$410 -80%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 −$10 -92%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $96 −$47 -49%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $71 +$44 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $649 13m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 64¢ $345 14m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $304 32m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 73¢ $224 55m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 64¢ $221 57m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $91 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $303 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 48¢ $263 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $101 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $71 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 63¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 62¢ $101 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 7¢ $16 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $101 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $511 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $69 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $34 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $102 12h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 18h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 18h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 18h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 19h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 19h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 20h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $42 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,055.16 · official $1,055.16 (match) · 36 history records