Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:21:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8253…8c13 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$2
other 37% +$1
sports 10% −$3
crypto 6% $0
culture 4% −$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 8 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 8 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 0% -8.8%
all 29 -0.3% -9.8% 34% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage466d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $81 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $36 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $32 +$1 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $32 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $34 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $33 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $10 $0 +5%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $11 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 9–16? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 10 $14 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $5 $0 +4%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 07 $6 $0 -2%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? May 07 $12 $0 +4%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $11 $0 -0%
Playboi Carti's "MUSIC" debuts at #1 on Billboard 200? Mar 23 $13 −$1 -12%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 19 $15 −$3 -17%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $36 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $36 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $36 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $10 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 30h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $3 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $36 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $7 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $24 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $12 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $12 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $36 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $17 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $16 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $9 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $22 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $9 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $23 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $26 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $6 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $35 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $34 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $10 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.33 · official $36.33 (match) · 98 history records