Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8253…be38 other 100 markets active 2d ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$163 (-0%) realized −$163 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,395per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$16
14 days−$39
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$63
politics 33% −$67
culture 3% −$5
world 2% −$12
sports 2% −$51
economics 2% −$2
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 39 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 8% -9.7%
≤90d 99 -2.1% -11.5% 8% 5% -9.7%
all 99 -2.1% -11.5% 8% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 5% -9.7%
10% -19.9% 5% -18.3%
15% -27.7% 4% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,479) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$4 · ×5.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized−$163
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage87d
Avg bet$1,395
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $332 $333 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $904 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $3,411 −$5 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 15 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,076 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $2,530 −$4 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 10 $1,182 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,466 −$4 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,175 −$3 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,264 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,439 −$4 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $1,209 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $3,783 −$5 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $2,672 −$4 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 05 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,146 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,256 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $237 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $471 +$1 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $6,766 −$8 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,186 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $419 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,539 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $711 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $486 −$1 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 24 $712 −$1 -0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? May 24 $85 +$27 +32%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,982 −$3 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $59 +$60 +101%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $61 +$41 +67%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $904 −$1 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $1,267 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $1,257 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $3,494 −$4 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $2,604 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1,464 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $1,457 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $1,416 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $5,318 −$6 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $3,850 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $819 44h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $820 46h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $903 46h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $904 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $832 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $833 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $645 3d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $646 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $663 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $664 3d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $765 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $766 4d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,052 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,054 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $332 5d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $1,181 8d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $1,182 8d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $886 9d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $888 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $973 10d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $975 10d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,076 10d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,078 10d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,262 10d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,264 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $970 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $971 11d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,207 12d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,209 12d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,274 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $332.54 · official $332.54 (match) · 334 history records