trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 51¢ | 50¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $30 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $32 | −$2 | -5% |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Jun 10 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? | Dec 09 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jun 29 | $9 | $0 | +5% |
| Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 | Jun 24 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? | May 08 | $34 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 25 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? | Apr 21 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 18 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? | Apr 17 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 29 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Trump meets with Carney in March? | Mar 24 | $0 | $0 | -3% |
| Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? | Mar 20 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Troy vs. Texas State | Feb 25 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Feb 25 | $12 | $0 | +3% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -3.0% | -12.2% | 0% | 0% | -12.1% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -3.0% | -12.2% | 0% | 0% | -12.1% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -3.0% | -12.2% | 0% | 0% | -12.1% |
| all | 17 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 59% | 0% | -10.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.4% | 0% | -10.1% |
| 10% | -18.0% | 0% | -18.7% |
| 15% | -26.0% | 0% | -26.6% |
| 20% | -33.2% | 0% | -33.8% |