Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8251…879d crypto 254 markets active 4d ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12,204 (+95%) realized +$1,661 · open +$10,543
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%63W / 185L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$13,229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$191
7 days+$114
14 days+$901
30 days+$1,161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% +$1,075
finance 26% +$702
world 18% +$9,799
other 5% −$197
sports 5% +$150
politics 4% −$248
weather 1% −$27
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.0% -9.5% 14% 14% +4.1%
≤30d 127 -16.5% -24.5% 26% 24% +3.9%
≤90d 248 -21.7% -29.2% 25% 23% -2.1%
all 248 -21.7% -29.2% 25% 23% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.2% 23% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here -36.0% 20% -11.5%
15% -42.1% 17% -20.0%
20% -47.8% 14% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$13 · ×3.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$13,229
Realized+$1,661
Unrealized+$10,543
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses63 / 185
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions6
Markets (closed)248 / 254
History coverage42d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 100¢ $1,076 $8,677 +$7,601 (+706%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 100¢ $1,002 $3,221 +$2,219 (+221%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 17¢ 40¢ $370 $883 +$513 (+139%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $177 $322 +$146 (+82%)
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $27 $75 +$48 (+177%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $35 $51 +$16 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $107 +$191 +179%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 13 $95 +$21 +22%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $53 −$12 -22%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $21 −$3 -16%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 11 $21 −$3 -15%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 11 $43 −$7 -17%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 11 $42 −$6 -15%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 11 $21 −$4 -17%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 11 $21 −$3 -16%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $32 −$6 -19%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $159 −$30 -19%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $38 −$4 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $52 −$11 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $52 −$7 -13%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 10? Jun 10 $11 −$10 -92%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 10? Jun 10 $53 −$43 -80%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10? Jun 10 $92 −$41 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $72 −$26 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $63 −$25 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $48 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -92%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? Jun 09 $85 −$16 -18%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $38 −$36 -94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 +$3 +28%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 9? Jun 09 $16 −$3 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $132 −$38 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4AM ET Jun 09 $38 −$32 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET Jun 09 $22 +$12 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $21 −$7 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $163 −$35 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$2 -17%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 08 $112 −$36 -32%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 8? Jun 08 $21 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1PM ET Jun 08 $22 +$6 +28%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 8? Jun 08 $48 −$46 -95%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 8? Jun 08 $54 −$49 -92%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 8? Jun 08 $112 −$85 -76%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on June 8? Jun 08 $11 −$10 -93%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 8? Jun 08 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2AM ET Jun 08 $22 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $235 −$77 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET Jun 08 $18 −$7 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $136 −$6 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $16 −$4 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $22 −$3 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $61 +$8 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $265 +$39 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $43 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $80 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL Yes 82¢ $116 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $129 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $247 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $186 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $229 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $206 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $291 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $54 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $156 5d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $41 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 20¢ $18 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $18 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $35 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $36 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 16¢ $18 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $18 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $26 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $43 5d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $43 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $33 5d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 36¢ $34 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $35 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $52 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $41 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $45 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $94 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,229.42 · official $13,229.92 (match) · 993 history records